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Validation and evaluation of clinical prediction systems for first and repeated transarterial chemoembolization in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: A Chinese multicenter retrospective study

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机构: [1]Department of Liver Disease and Digestive Interventional Radiology, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases and Xijing Hospital of Digestive Diseases, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi’an 710032, Shaanxi Province, China [2]Department of Radiology, the Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing 400037, China [3]Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Third Military Medical University, Chongqing 400037, China [4]Department of Minimally Invasive International Therapy, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming University, Tumor Hospital of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650000, Yunnan Province, China [5]Department of Interventional Radiology, Tumor Hospital of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610000, Sichuan Province, China [6]Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Interventional Cancer, the First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310003, Zhejiang Province, China [7]Department of Interventional Radiology, Henan Cancer Hospital, the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450008, Henan Province, China [8]Department of Interventional Radiology, the Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, Nantong 226001, Jiangsu Province, China [9]Department of Oncology, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330000, Jiangxi Province, China [10]Department of Interventional Radiology, the Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830001, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China [11]Department of Interventional Radiology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yatsen University, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong Province, China [12]Department of Interventional Medical Center, the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao 266000, Shandong Province, China [13]Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Shandong Province Hospital affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan 250021, Shandong Province, China [14]Department of Interventional Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou 215006, Jiangsu Province, China [15]Department of Interventional Radiology, Yantai Yuhuangding Hospital, Yantai 264000, Shandong Province, China [16]Department of Health Statistics, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi’an, Xi’an 710032, Shaanxi Province, China
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关键词: Transarterial chemoembolization Hepatocellular carcinoma Prognostic system Radiological response Overall survival Predictive ability

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BACKGROUND The treatment outcome of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) varies greatly due to the clinical heterogeneity of the patients. Therefore, several prognostic systems have been proposed for risk stratification and candidate identification for first TACE and repeated TACE (re-TACE). AIM To investigate the correlations between prognostic systems and radiological response, compare the predictive abilities, and integrate them in sequence for outcome prediction. METHODS This nationwide multicenter retrospective cohort consisted of 1107 unresectable HCC patients in 15 Chinese tertiary hospitals from January 2010 to May 2016. The Hepatoma Arterial-embolization Prognostic (HAP) score system and its modified versions (mHAP, mHAP2 and mHAP3), as well as the six-and-twelve criteria were compared in terms of their correlations with radiological response and overall survival (OS) prediction for first TACE. The same analyses were conducted in 912 patients receiving re-TACE to evaluate the ART (assessment for re-treatment with TACE) and ABCR (alpha-fetoprotein, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Child-Pugh and Response) systems for post re-TACE survival (PRTS). RESULTS All the prognostic systems were correlated with radiological response achieved by first TACE, and the six-and-twelve criteria exhibited the highest correlation (Spearman R = 0.39, P = 0.026) and consistency (Kappa = 0.14, P = 0.019), with optimal performance by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.74]. With regard to the prediction of OS, the mHAP3 system identified patients with a favorable outcome with the highest concordance (C)-index of 0.60 (95%CI: 0.57-0.62) and the best area under the receiver operating characteristic curve at any time point during follow-up; whereas, PRTS was well-predicted by the ABCR system with a C-index of 0.61 (95%CI: 0.59-0.63), rather than ART. Finally, combining the mHAP3 and ABCR systems identified candidates suitable for TACE with an improved median PRTS of 36.6 mo, compared with non-candidates with a median PRTS of 20.0 mo (log-rank test P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Radiological response to TACE is closely associated with tumor burden, but superior prognostic prediction could be achieved with the combination of mHAP3 and ABCR in patients with unresectable liver-confined HCC.

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出版当年[2020]版
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 胃肠肝病学
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 胃肠肝病学
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出版当年[2020]版:
Q2 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2020版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2019版] 出版后一年[2021版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Liver Disease and Digestive Interventional Radiology, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases and Xijing Hospital of Digestive Diseases, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi’an 710032, Shaanxi Province, China
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通讯机构: [1]Department of Liver Disease and Digestive Interventional Radiology, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases and Xijing Hospital of Digestive Diseases, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi’an 710032, Shaanxi Province, China [*1]Department of Liver Disease and Digestive Interventional Radiology, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases and Xijing Hospital of Digestive Diseases, Fourth Military Medical University, 15 West Changle Road, Xi’an 710032, Shaanxi Province, China.
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