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Global trends of esophageal cancer among individuals over 60 years: an epidemiological analysis from 1990 to 2050 based on the global burden of disease study 1990-2021

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机构: [1]Univ Elect Sci & Technol China UESTC, Sichuan Canc Hosp & Inst, Sichuan Clin Res Ctr Canc, Sichuan Canc Ctr,Dept Thorac Surg, Chengdu, Peoples R China [2]Chongqing Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Chongqing, Peoples R China [3]Kunming Med Univ, Yunnan Canc Hosp, Affiliated Hosp 3,Dept Thorac Surg, Yunnan Canc Hosp,Key Lab Lung Canc Yunnan Prov, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China [4]Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, Sichuan Prov Peoples Hosp, Dept Oncol, Sichuan Acad Med Sci, Chengdu, Peoples R China [5]Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, Sichuan Prov Peoples Hosp, Canc Inst, Sichuan Acad Med Sci, Chengdu, Peoples R China
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关键词: esophageal cancer global burden of disease management incidence mortality

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Objective Esophageal cancer (EC) ranks as the sixth leading cause of cancer-related deaths globally, with over 500,000 new cases annually. Understanding trends in individuals over 60 is critical for enhancing treatment and the success of early diagnosis and screening.Materials and methods This study analyzed global, regional, and national trends in EC management among individuals aged 60 years and older, spanning from 1990 to 2021, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. We employed the integrating differential equations to enhance the accuracy of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was also used to forecast future trends up to 2050.Results Our findings indicate significant shifts in the EC burden among those over 60, with a notable increase in absolute numbers from 1990 to 2021, despite a decline in age-standardized rates. The incidence rose by 185%, while the age-standardized prevalence rate decreased by 17.02%. Socioeconomic factors, indicated by the Social Demographic Index, revealed varying trends across different regions and income levels, highlighting the influence of economic status on EC outcomes.Conclusion Analysis indicates varying trends across different regions. Behavioral risk factors, particularly smoking and alcohol use, significantly contribute to the burden of EC, especially among males. Projections suggest that despite declining age-standardized rates, the absolute number of cases, deaths, and DALYs will continue to rise due to population growth and aging, highlighting the ongoing global challenge of EC.

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出版当年[2025]版
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 肿瘤学
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大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 肿瘤学
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Q1 ONCOLOGY
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Q1 ONCOLOGY

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第一作者机构: [1]Univ Elect Sci & Technol China UESTC, Sichuan Canc Hosp & Inst, Sichuan Clin Res Ctr Canc, Sichuan Canc Ctr,Dept Thorac Surg, Chengdu, Peoples R China [2]Chongqing Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Chongqing, Peoples R China
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通讯机构: [1]Univ Elect Sci & Technol China UESTC, Sichuan Canc Hosp & Inst, Sichuan Clin Res Ctr Canc, Sichuan Canc Ctr,Dept Thorac Surg, Chengdu, Peoples R China [3]Kunming Med Univ, Yunnan Canc Hosp, Affiliated Hosp 3,Dept Thorac Surg, Yunnan Canc Hosp,Key Lab Lung Canc Yunnan Prov, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China [4]Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, Sichuan Prov Peoples Hosp, Dept Oncol, Sichuan Acad Med Sci, Chengdu, Peoples R China [5]Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, Sichuan Prov Peoples Hosp, Canc Inst, Sichuan Acad Med Sci, Chengdu, Peoples R China
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