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单侧甲状腺微小乳头状癌对侧中央区淋巴结转移的影响因素分析及其预测模型构建

Influencing factors and predictive model development for contralateral central lymph node metastasis in unilateral papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

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收录情况: ◇ 统计源期刊 ◇ 北大核心 ◇ 卓越:领军期刊 ◇ 中华系列

机构: [1]四川省肿瘤医院头颈外科 四川省肿瘤临床医学研究中心 四川省肿瘤医院·研究所 四川省癌症防治中心 电子科技大学附属肿瘤医院,成都 610041 [2]西南医科大学临床 医学系, 泸州 646100 [3]四川大学华西第四医院甲状腺乳腺外科, 成都 610041
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关键词: 甲状腺肿瘤  甲状腺微小乳头状癌  对侧中央区淋巴结转移  颈淋巴结清扫  预测模型

摘要:
Objective: To investigate the influencing factors for contralateral central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in unilateral papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) and develop a predictive model. Methods: The clinical data from 336 patients with unilateral PTMC who were admitted to Sichuan Cancer Hospital between May 2021 and September 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were randomly assigned into a training set (235 cases) and a validation set (101 cases) in a 7∶3 ratio by computer. Univariate logistic regression analysis was performed to screen for potential influencing factors related to contralateral CLNM. Subsequently, a stepwise multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a predictive model for contralateral CLNM and a nomogram was established. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis, respectively. Results: A total of 336 patients aged (43.4±12.0) years were included, with 71 males and 265 females. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that age (>55 years: OR=0.24, 95%CI: 0.07-0.87, P=0.030), lateral neck lymph node metastasis (OR=1.98, 95%CI: 1.01-3.89, P=0.046), ipsilateral lymph node metastasis (OR=3.12, 95%CI: 1.60-6.07, P<0.001), and pre-laryngeal lymph node metastasis (OR=2.92, 95%CI: 1.14-7.48, P=0.025) were significant influencing factors for contralateral CLNM. Based on the multivariate logistic regression results, a predictive model and corresponding nomogram were constructed. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.76 (95%CI: 0.69-0.83) in the training set and 0.72 (95%CI: 0.61-0.84) in the validation set. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test demonstrated good calibration (training set: χ2=5.717, P=0.335; validation set: χ2=1.354, P=0.716). Decision curve analysis showed that the model provided a net clinical benefit when the predicted risk threshold ranged from 0.12 to 0.67 in the training set and from 0.01 to 0.50 in the validation set. Conclusions: The current study indicates that age, lateral neck lymph node metastasis, ipsilateral lymph node metastasis, and pre-laryngeal lymph node metastasis are significant influencing factors for contralateral CLNM in unilateral PTMC. The predictive model developed using these factors demonstrates good discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.

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第一作者机构: [1]四川省肿瘤医院头颈外科 四川省肿瘤临床医学研究中心 四川省肿瘤医院·研究所 四川省癌症防治中心 电子科技大学附属肿瘤医院,成都 610041
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