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Incidence, prevalence, and burden of type 2 diabetes in China: Trend and projection from 1990 to 2050

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收录情况: ◇ SCIE ◇ 统计源期刊 ◇ 卓越:领军期刊 ◇ 中华系列

机构: [1]Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, MAGIC China Centre, Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China [2]Institute of Metabolic Diseases and Pharmacotherapy, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China [3]School of Public Health and Women’s Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058, China [4]Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism and the Institute of Endocrinology, NHC Key Laboratory of Diagnosis and Treatment of Thyroid Diseases, First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110001, China [5]Teaching & Research Section of General Practice, The General Practice Medical Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China [6]Department of Health Policy and Management, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China [7]Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics, State Key Laboratory of Biotherapy and Cancer Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University and Collaborative Innovation Center of Biotherapy, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China.
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关键词: Incidence Prevalence Death Disability-adjusted life years Burden Projections Type 2 diabetes

摘要:
Type 2 diabetes is common in China without comprehensive summary and future anticipation of its incidence, prevalence, associated death, and disability. This analysis described the epidemiological transition of type 2 diabetes in the past three decades and projected the trend in the future three decades in China.Age-, sex-, and year-specific incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for people with 15 years or older and diabetes or high fasting glucose in China and related countries from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease. We obtained the trends of age-, sex-, and year-specific rates and absolute numbers of incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs attributable to type 2 diabetes in China from 1990 to 2021. Using the Lee-Carter model, we projected the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs attributable to type 2 diabetes to 2050 stratified by age and sex.The age-standardized incidence of type 2 diabetes was 341.5 per 100,000 persons (1.6 times in 1990) and the age-standardized prevalence was 9960.0 per 100,000 persons (2.5 times in 1990) in China 2021. In 2021, there were 0.9 million deaths and 26.8 million DALYs due to type 2 diabetes or hyperglycemia, as 2.9 and 2.7 times the data in 1990, respectively. In the projection, the age-standardized incidence (449.5 per 100,000 persons in 2050) will continue to increase but the growing rate will slow down in the future decades. With the population aging, there will be estimated 211.2 million Chinese people with type 2 diabetes with an anticipated age-standardized prevalence of 18,171.2 per 100,000 persons, 244.6 per 100,000 deaths, and 4720.2 per 100,000 DALYs in 2050. The incidence of type 2 diabetes kept growing among adolescents and young adults in the past three decades (128.7, 439.9, and estimated 1870.8 per 100,000 persons in 1990, 2021, and 2050, respectively).The incidence, prevalence, and disease burden of type 2 diabetes grew rapidly in China in the past three decades. The greatest challenges in the future three decades will be the prevention of type 2 diabetes in young people and the care for elder adults.Copyright © 2025 The Chinese Medical Association, produced by Wolters Kluwer, Inc. under the CC-BY-NC-ND license.

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大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 医学:内科
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大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 医学:内科
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Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL
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Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, MAGIC China Centre, Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Centre, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
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