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Global, regional, and national cancer burdens of respiratory and digestive tracts in 1990-2044: A cross-sectional and age-period-cohort forecast study

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机构: [1]Department of Thoracic Surgery, Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Research Institute, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (UESTC), Chengdu 610041, China [2]Shanghai Lung Cancer Center, Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, China [3]Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China [4]Department of Liver Surgery, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China [5]Department of Gastroenterology, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China [6]Department of Radiology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China [7]Shanghai Institute of Medical Imaging, Shanghai, 200032, China [8]Department of Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China [9]Department of Radiology, Shanghai Ninth People’s Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200011, China
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关键词: respiratory tract digestive tract age-standardized incidence rates age-standardized death rates Global Burden of Disease disability-adjusted life years

摘要:
Understanding the current status and future trends of cancer burdens by systems provides important information for specialists, policymakers, and specific risk populations.The aim of this study was to compare the current and future cancer burdens of the gastrointestinal (GI) and respiratory tracts in terms of their magnitude and distribution. Data from a total of eight cancers of the digestive and respiratory tracts in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database were collected. The age-standardized incidence/death rates (ASIR/ASDRs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were analyzed. Future trends were predicted with Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) and NORDPRED models.In 2019, there was a significant increase in DALY for both digestive and respiratory tract cancers compared to 1990. Meanwhile, ASIR increased slightly and ASDR decreased notably. In 2019, the global cancer burdens of respiratory and digestive tracts were 38568363.53 and 66912328.72 in DALY, 34.28 and 55.32 in ASIR, and 656.82 and 808.22 in ASDR per 100,000 population with changes of +54.63% and +43.93%, +2.92% and +5.65%, and -17.39% and -26.83% compared to those in 1990, respectively. Significant cross-regional differences in the cancer burdens were observed among the regions. Compared to four representative chronic diseases, the burden of cancers showed less remission and greater global inequalities. The burdens of both digestive and respiratory tract cancers were higher in males than in females in terms of the ASIR, ASDR, and DALY. The incidence and mortality rates of respiratory tract cancers were up to 3-4 times higher in males than in females, whereas the difference between male and female rates of digestive tract cancers was relatively smaller. The main risk factor associated with all kinds of digestive and respiratory tract cancers is tobacco, leading to 18.5 in ASDR and 3.38×107 in DALY for respiratory tract cancers; 8.29 in ASDR and 1.60×107 in DALY for digestive tract cancers, in 2019. Additionally, alcohol use contributes to most digestive and respiratory tract cancers (1.23/1.03 in ASDR and 1.60×106/2.57×106 in DALY for respiratory tract cancers; 4.19/3.82 in ASDR and 4.49×106/8.06×106 in DALY for digestive tract cancers), except for stomach cancer and tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer. The cancer burdens of respiratory and digestive tracts are likely to decrease substantially between 2020 and 2044. For most metrics, except for the ASIR and male-to-female ratios of ASDR and ASDALY in digestive tract cancers, the worldwide variances of burden metrics have been decreasing in the past decades and will possibly maintain stable trends in the future.The epidemiology of respiratory and GI tract cancers has common features and individual characteristics that are reflected in geography, age characteristics, and risk factors. Current epidemiological status, future trends, and the globalization of these disease burdens are important factors for making scientific planning of resources to minimize the cancer burden metrics and their cross-regional inequalities.Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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出版当年[2023]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生 4 区 肿瘤学
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生 4 区 肿瘤学
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出版当年[2023]版:
Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Q3 ONCOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Q3 ONCOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2023版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2023版]

第一作者:
第一作者机构: [1]Department of Thoracic Surgery, Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Research Institute, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (UESTC), Chengdu 610041, China [2]Shanghai Lung Cancer Center, Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, China
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通讯机构: [1]Department of Thoracic Surgery, Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Research Institute, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (UESTC), Chengdu 610041, China [2]Shanghai Lung Cancer Center, Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, China [6]Department of Radiology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China [7]Shanghai Institute of Medical Imaging, Shanghai, 200032, China [8]Department of Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
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