Prediction Model of In-Hospital Death for Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Unit: The PD-ICU Score
机构:[1]Sichuan Univ, West China Hosp, Dept Crit Care Med, Chengdu, Peoples R China四川大学华西医院[2]Sichuan Univ, West China Hosp, Dept Resp & Crit Care Med, Chengdu, Peoples R China四川大学华西医院[3]Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, Sichuan Canc Hosp, Chengdu, Peoples R China四川省肿瘤医院[4]Guangzhou Med Univ, State Key Lab Resp Dis, Guangzhou, Peoples R China[5]Peoples Hosp Leshan, Dept Resp & Crit Care Med, Leshan, Peoples R China[6]Zhejiang Univ, Sir Run Run Shaw Hosp, Dept Resp & Crit Care Med, Sch Med, Hangzhou, Peoples R China[7]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Tongji Hosp, Tongji Med Coll, Dept Resp & Crit Care Med, Wuhan, Peoples R China华中科技大学同济医学院附属同济医院[8]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Union Hosp, Tongji Med Coll, Dept Resp & Crit Care Med, Wuhan, Peoples R China华中科技大学同济医学院附属协和医院[9]First Peoples Hosp Neijiang City, Dept Resp & Crit Care Med, Neijiang, Peoples R China[10]Cent South Univ, Xiangya Hosp, Dept Resp & Crit Care Med, Changsha, Peoples R China[11]Chengdu Univ, Dept Resp & Crit Care Med, Affiliated Hosp, Chengdu, Peoples R China[12]Sichuan Univ, West China Hosp, Ctr Infect Dis, Div Infect Dis,State Key Lab Biotherapy, Chengdu, Peoples R China四川大学华西医院
Introduction: Patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) are exposed to poor clinical outcomes, and no specific prognostic models are available among this population. We aimed to develop and validate a risk score for prognosis prediction for these patients. Methods: This was a multicenter observation study. AECOPD patients admitted to ICU were included for model derivation from a prospective, multicenter cohort study. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify independent predictors for in-hospital death and establish the prognostic risk score. The risk score was further validated and compared with DECAF, BAP-65, CURB-65, and APACHE II score in another multicenter cohort. Results: Five variables were identified as independent predictors for in-hospital death in APCOPD patients admitted to ICU, and a corresponding risk score (PD-ICU score) was established, which was composed of procalcitonin >0.5 mu g/L, diastolic blood pressure <60 mm Hg, need for invasive mechanical ventilation, disturbance of consciousness, and blood urea nitrogen >7.2 mmol/L. Patients were classified into three risk categories according to the PD-ICU score. The in-hospital mortality of low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk patients was 0.3%, 7.3%, and 27.9%, respectively. PD-ICU score displayed excellent discrimination ability with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.815 in the derivation cohort and 0.754 in the validation cohort which outperformed other prognostic models. Conclusion: We derived and validated a simple and clinician-friendly prediction model (PD-ICU score) for in-hospital mortality among AECOPD patients admitted to ICU. With good performance and clinical practicability, this model may facilitate early risk stratification and optimal decision-making among these patients.
基金:
Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province [2022NSFSC1311]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [82170013]; Sichuan Province Science and Technology Support Program [2022YFS0262]; National Key Research and Development Program of China [2016YFC1304202]
第一作者机构:[1]Sichuan Univ, West China Hosp, Dept Crit Care Med, Chengdu, Peoples R China
通讯作者:
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Li Xiaoqian,Yi Qun,Luo Yuanming,et al.Prediction Model of In-Hospital Death for Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Unit: The PD-ICU Score[J].RESPIRATION.2024,doi:10.1159/000541367.
APA:
Li, Xiaoqian,Yi, Qun,Luo, Yuanming,Wei, Hailong,Ge, Huiqing...&Zhou, Haixia.(2024).Prediction Model of In-Hospital Death for Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Unit: The PD-ICU Score.RESPIRATION,,
MLA:
Li, Xiaoqian,et al."Prediction Model of In-Hospital Death for Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Unit: The PD-ICU Score".RESPIRATION .(2024)