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Development of models for cervical cancer screening: construction in a cross-sectional population and validation in two screening cohorts in China

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机构: [1]Department of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/NationalClinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy ofMedical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, 17 South PanjiayuanLane, Beijing, China [2]Metabolic Epidemiology Branch, Division of CancerEpidemiology & Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA [3]Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute, Sichuan Cancer Center, School ofMedicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Chengdu, China [4]Biostatistics Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology &Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA [5]Department ofPublic Health and Preventive Medicine, Baotou Medical College, Baotou,Inner Mongolia, China [6]Department of Cancer Epidemiology, Henan CancerHospital, Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou,China [7]Department of Pathology, National Cancer Center/National ClinicalResearch Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of MedicalSciences and Peking Union Medical College, 17 South Panjiayuan Lane,Beijing, China
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关键词: Cervical cancer Human papillomavirus virus (HPV) Screening

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Background Current methods for cervical cancer screening result in an increased number of referrals and unnecessary diagnostic procedures. This study aimed to develop and evaluate a more accurate model for cervical cancer screening. Methods Multiple predictors including age, cytology, high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) DNA/mRNA, E6 oncoprotein, HPV genotyping, and p16/Ki-67 were used for model construction in a cross-sectional population including women with normal cervix (N = 1085), cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN, N = 279), and cervical cancer (N = 551) to predict CIN2+ or CIN3+. A base model using age, cytology, and hrHPV was calculated, and extended versions with additional biomarkers were considered. External validations in two screening cohorts with 3-year follow-up were further conducted (NCohort-I = 3179, NCohort-II = 3082). Results The base model increased the area under the curve (AUC, 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.88-0.93) and reduced colposcopy referral rates (42.76%, 95% CI = 38.67-46.92) compared to hrHPV and cytology co-testing in the cross-sectional population (AUC 0.80, 95% CI = 0.79-0.82, referrals rates 61.62, 95% CI = 59.4-63.8) to predict CIN2+. The AUC further improved when HPV genotyping and/or E6 oncoprotein were included in the base model. External validation in two screening cohorts further demonstrated that our models had better clinical performances than routine screening methods, yielded AUCs of 0.92 (95% CI = 0.91-0.93) and 0.94 (95% CI = 0.91-0.97) to predict CIN2+ and referrals rates of 17.55% (95% CI = 16.24-18.92) and 7.40% (95% CI = 6.50-8.38) in screening cohort I and II, respectively. Similar results were observed for CIN3+ prediction. Conclusions Compared to routine screening methods, our model using current cervical screening indicators can improve the clinical performance and reduce referral rates.

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基金编号: 81272337 81973136

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出版当年[2021]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 医学:内科
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大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 医学:内科
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出版当年[2021]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL
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Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/NationalClinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy ofMedical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, 17 South PanjiayuanLane, Beijing, China [2]Metabolic Epidemiology Branch, Division of CancerEpidemiology & Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
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