机构:[1]Department of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/NationalClinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy ofMedical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, 17 South PanjiayuanLane, Beijing, China[2]Metabolic Epidemiology Branch, Division of CancerEpidemiology & Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA[3]Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute, Sichuan Cancer Center, School ofMedicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Chengdu, China四川省肿瘤医院[4]Biostatistics Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology &Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA[5]Department ofPublic Health and Preventive Medicine, Baotou Medical College, Baotou,Inner Mongolia, China内蒙古科技大学包头医学院[6]Department of Cancer Epidemiology, Henan CancerHospital, Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou,China河南省肿瘤医院[7]Department of Pathology, National Cancer Center/National ClinicalResearch Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of MedicalSciences and Peking Union Medical College, 17 South Panjiayuan Lane,Beijing, China
Background Current methods for cervical cancer screening result in an increased number of referrals and unnecessary diagnostic procedures. This study aimed to develop and evaluate a more accurate model for cervical cancer screening. Methods Multiple predictors including age, cytology, high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) DNA/mRNA, E6 oncoprotein, HPV genotyping, and p16/Ki-67 were used for model construction in a cross-sectional population including women with normal cervix (N = 1085), cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN, N = 279), and cervical cancer (N = 551) to predict CIN2+ or CIN3+. A base model using age, cytology, and hrHPV was calculated, and extended versions with additional biomarkers were considered. External validations in two screening cohorts with 3-year follow-up were further conducted (NCohort-I = 3179, NCohort-II = 3082). Results The base model increased the area under the curve (AUC, 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.88-0.93) and reduced colposcopy referral rates (42.76%, 95% CI = 38.67-46.92) compared to hrHPV and cytology co-testing in the cross-sectional population (AUC 0.80, 95% CI = 0.79-0.82, referrals rates 61.62, 95% CI = 59.4-63.8) to predict CIN2+. The AUC further improved when HPV genotyping and/or E6 oncoprotein were included in the base model. External validation in two screening cohorts further demonstrated that our models had better clinical performances than routine screening methods, yielded AUCs of 0.92 (95% CI = 0.91-0.93) and 0.94 (95% CI = 0.91-0.97) to predict CIN2+ and referrals rates of 17.55% (95% CI = 16.24-18.92) and 7.40% (95% CI = 6.50-8.38) in screening cohort I and II, respectively. Similar results were observed for CIN3+ prediction. Conclusions Compared to routine screening methods, our model using current cervical screening indicators can improve the clinical performance and reduce referral rates.
基金:
National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [81272337, 81973136]
第一作者机构:[1]Department of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/NationalClinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy ofMedical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, 17 South PanjiayuanLane, Beijing, China[2]Metabolic Epidemiology Branch, Division of CancerEpidemiology & Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
通讯作者:
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Wu Zeni,Li Tingyuan,Han Yongli,et al.Development of models for cervical cancer screening: construction in a cross-sectional population and validation in two screening cohorts in China[J].BMC MEDICINE.2021,19(1):doi:10.1186/s12916-021-02078-2.
APA:
Wu, Zeni,Li, Tingyuan,Han, Yongli,Jiang, Mingyue,Yu, Yanqin...&Chen, Wen.(2021).Development of models for cervical cancer screening: construction in a cross-sectional population and validation in two screening cohorts in China.BMC MEDICINE,19,(1)
MLA:
Wu, Zeni,et al."Development of models for cervical cancer screening: construction in a cross-sectional population and validation in two screening cohorts in China".BMC MEDICINE 19..1(2021)