Radiotherapy treatment planning dose prediction can be used to ensure plan quality and guide automatic plan. One of the dose prediction methods is incorporating historical treatment planning data into algorithms to estimate the dose-volume histogram (DVH) of organ for new patients. Although DVH is used extensively in treatment plan quality and radiotherapy prognosis evaluation, three-dimensional dose distribution can describe the radiation effects more explicitly. The purpose of this retrospective study was to predict the dose distribution of breast cancer radiotherapy by means of deformable registration into atlas images with historical treatment planning data that were considered to achieve expert level. The atlas cohort comprised 20 patients with left-sided breast cancer, previously treated by volumetric-modulated arc radiotherapy. The registration-based prediction technique was applied to 20 patients outside the atlas cohort. This study evaluated and compared three different approaches: registration to the most similar image from a dataset of individual atlas images (SIM), registration to all images from a database of individual atlas images with the average method (WEI_A), and the weighted method (WEI_F). The dose prediction performance of each strategy was quantified using nine metrics, including the region of interest dose error, 80% and 100% prescription area dice similarity coefficients (DSCs), and γ metrics. A Friedman test and a nonparametric exact Wilcoxon signed rank test were performed to compare the differences among groups. The clinical doses of all cases served as the gold standard. The WEI_F method could achieve superior dose prediction results to those of WEI_A. WEI_F outperformed SIM in the organ-at-risk mean absolute difference (MAD). When using the WEI_F method, the MAD values for the ipsilateral lung, heart, and whole lung were 197.9 ± 42.9, 166 ± 55.1, 122.3 ± 25.5, and 55.3 ± 42.2 cGy, respectively. Moreover, SIM exhibited superior prediction in the DSC and γ metrics. When using the SIM method, the means of the 80% and 100% prescription area DSCs, 33γ metric, and 55γ metric were 0.85 ± 0.05, 0.84 ± 0.05, 0.64 ± 0.13, and 0.84 ± 0.10, respectively. The plan target volume and spinal cord MAD when using SIM and WEI were 235.6 ± 158.4 cGy versus 227.4 ± 144.0 cGy ([Formula: see text]) and 61.4 ± 44.9 cGy versus 55.3 ± 42.2 cGy ([Formula: see text]), respectively. A predicted dose distribution that approximated the clinical plan could be generated using the methods presented in this study.