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Early identification of potentially reversible cancer cachexia using explainable machine learning driven by body weight dynamics: a multicenter cohort study

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机构: [1]Department of Nephrology, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Kidney Disease,ChongqingClinical Research Center of Kidney and Urology Diseases,Xinqiao Hospital,Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing 400037,China [2]Department of Clinical Nutrition, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University(Third Military Medical University), Chongqing 400042, China [3]Cancer Center of the First Hospital of Jilin University,Changchun,Jilin 130021, China [4]Department of Medical Oncology,Fujian Cancer Hospital, Fujian Medical University Cancer Hospital, Fuzhou, Fujian 350014,China [5]Department of Integrated Chineseand WestemMedicine,Cancer Hospital of the University of Chinese Academy of Science (Zhejiang Cancer Hospital),Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310022,China [6]Department of Oncology, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan,Hubei 430071,China [7]Department of Colorectal Surgery, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150001, China [8]Department of Colorectal and Anal Surgery, Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410008, China [9]Department of Palliative Care and Department of Geriatric Oncology,Chongqing University Cancer Hospital, Chongqing400030, China [10]Department of Radiation Oncology,Sichuan Cancer Hospital and Institute, Sichuan Cancer Center, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu,Sichuan 610041, China [11]Department of Clinical Nutrition, The First Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050031, China [12]Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery and Department of Clinical Nutrition,Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100038,China [13]Department of Epidemiology,College of Public Health,Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan 450001, China [14]Key Laboratory of Cancer FSMP for State Market Regulation, Beijing 100038,China
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关键词: Cancer cachexia Decision Machine learning Body weight

摘要:
Cachexia is associated with multiple adverse outcomes in cancer. However, clinical decision-making for oncology patients at the cachexia stage presents significant challenges.This study aims to develop a machine learning (ML) model to identify potentially reversible cancer cachexia (PRCC).This was a multicenter cohort study. Cachexia was retrospectively diagnosed using Fearon's framework. PRCC was defined as a diagnosis of cancer cachexia at baseline that turned negative 1 mo later. Body weight dynamics accessible upon patient admission were screened and modeled to predict PRCC. Multiple ML models were trained and cross-validated using 70% of the data to predict PRCC, with the remaining 30% reserved for model evaluation. The interpretability and clinical usefulness of the optimal model were assessed, and external validation was performed in an independent cohort of 238 patients.The study enrolled 1983 men and 1784 women (median age = 58 y). PRCC was identified in 1983 patients (52.6%). Breast cancer exhibited the highest rate of PRCC (72.1%), whereas cachexia associated with various gastrointestinal cancers was less likely to be reversed. Weight change (WC) from 6 mo ago to 1 mo ago, WC from 1 mo ago to baseline (-1 to 0), and baseline body mass index were selected for modeling. A multilayer perceptron model showed good performance to predict PRCC in the holdout test set [area under the curve (95% confidence interval): 0.887 (0.866, 0.907); accuracy: 0.836; sensitivity: 0.859; specificity: 0.812] and the external validation set [area under the curve (95% confidence interval): 0.863 (0.778, 0.948)]. The WC -1 to 0 showed the highest impact on model output. The model was demonstrated to be clinically useful and statistically relevant.This study presents an explainable ML model for the early identification of PRCC that utilizes simple body weight dynamics. The findings showcase the potential of this approach in improving the management of cancer cachexia to optimize patient outcomes.Copyright © 2025 American Society for Nutrition. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 营养学
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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Nephrology, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Kidney Disease,ChongqingClinical Research Center of Kidney and Urology Diseases,Xinqiao Hospital,Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing 400037,China [2]Department of Clinical Nutrition, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University(Third Military Medical University), Chongqing 400042, China
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通讯机构: [1]Department of Nephrology, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Kidney Disease,ChongqingClinical Research Center of Kidney and Urology Diseases,Xinqiao Hospital,Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing 400037,China [2]Department of Clinical Nutrition, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University(Third Military Medical University), Chongqing 400042, China [12]Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery and Department of Clinical Nutrition,Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100038,China [14]Key Laboratory of Cancer FSMP for State Market Regulation, Beijing 100038,China
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