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Novel multifactor predictive model for postoperative survival in gallbladder cancer: a multi-center study

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机构: [1]Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 1 Shuaifuyuan, Dongcheng District, Beijing, 100730, China. [2]Department of Liver Surgery and Liver Transplant Center, Department of General of Surgery, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China. [3]Sanofi, Research and Development, Beijing, China. [4]Department of General Surgery, Department of Hepato-Bilio-Pancreatic Surgery, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.
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关键词: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) Surgery Survival Predictive model Nomogram Tumor markers Comorbidities

摘要:
Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is a highly aggressive malignancy, with limited survival profiles after curative surgeries. This study aimed to develop a practical model for predicting the postoperative overall survival (OS) in GBC patients.Patients from three hospitals were included. Two centers (N = 102 and 100) were adopted for model development and internal validation, and the third center (N = 85) was used for external testing. Univariate and stepwise multivariate Cox regression were used for feature selection. A nomogram for 1-, 3-, and 5-year postoperative survival rates was constructed accordingly. Performance assessment included Harrell's concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves. Kaplan-Meier curves were utilized to evaluate the risk stratification results of the nomogram. Decision curves were used to reflect the net benefit.Eight factors, TNM stage, age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (aCCI), body mass index (BMI), R0 resection, blood platelet count, and serum levels of albumin, CA125, CA199 were incorporated in the nomogram. The time-dependent C-index consistently exceeded 0.70 from 6 months to 5 years, and time-dependent ROC revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of over 75% for 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival. The calibration curves, Kaplan-Meier curves and decision curves also indicated good prognostic performance and clinical benefit, surpassing traditional indicators TNM staging and CA199 levels. The reliability of results was further proved in the independent external testing set.The novel nomogram exhibited good prognostic efficacy and robust generalizability in GBC patients, which might be a promising tool for aiding clinical decision-making.© 2024. The Author(s).

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大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 肿瘤学 3 区 外科
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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 1 Shuaifuyuan, Dongcheng District, Beijing, 100730, China.
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