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The research of ARIMA, GM(1,1), and LSTM models for prediction of TB cases in China.

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机构: [1]Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Provincial Orthopedics Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R. China, [2]Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R. China, [3]Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R. China, [4]Department of Information and Statistics, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan, P.R. China, [5]Department of Medical Administration, Luzhou People’s Hospital, Luzhou, Sichuan, P.R. China, [6]School of Management, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R. China
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Tuberculosis (Tuberculosis, TB) is a public health problem in China, which not only endangers the population's health but also affects economic and social development. It requires an accurate prediction analysis to help to make policymakers with early warning and provide effective precautionary measures. In this study, ARIMA, GM(1,1), and LSTM models were constructed and compared, respectively. The results showed that the LSTM was the optimal model, which can be achieved satisfactory performance for TB cases predictions in mainland China.The data of tuberculosis cases in mainland China were extracted from the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China website. According to the TB data characteristics and the sample requirements, we created the ARIMA, GM(1,1), and LSTM models, which can make predictions for the prevalence trend of TB. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were applied to evaluate the effects of model fitting predicting accuracy.There were 3,021,995 tuberculosis cases in mainland China from January 2018 to December 2020. And the overall TB cases in mainland China take on a downtrend trend. We established ARIMA, GM(1,1), and LSTM models, respectively. The optimal ARIMA model is the ARIMA (0,1,0) × (0,1,0)12. The equation for GM(1,1) model was X(k+1) = -10057053.55e(-0.01k) + 10153178.55 the Mean square deviation ratio C value was 0.49, and the Small probability of error P was 0.94. LSTM model consists of an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer, the parameters of epochs, learning rating are 60, 0.01, respectively. The MAE, RMSE, and MAPE values of LSTM model were smaller than that of GM(1,1) and ARIMA models.Our findings showed that the LSTM model was the optimal model, which has a higher accuracy performance than that of ARIMA and GM (1,1) models. Its prediction results can act as a predictive tool for TB prevention measures in mainland China.

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基金编号: grant no. YLZLXZ-2021-005

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出版当年[2022]版:
大类 | 3 区 综合性期刊
小类 | 3 区 综合性期刊
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 3 区 综合性期刊
小类 | 3 区 综合性期刊
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出版当年[2022]版:
Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
最新[2023]版:
Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Provincial Orthopedics Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R. China,
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