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Prognostic Value of Nomogram Based on Pre-Treatment Inflammatory Markers in Patients With Colorectal Oligo-Metastases.

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机构: [1]Department of Graduate,Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan, China, Luzhou, China, [2]Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, Shandong, China, Jinan, China, [3]Department ofGraduate, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First MedicalUniversity and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, Shandong,China, Jinan, China, [4]Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University,Jinan, Shandong, China, Jinan, China, [5]Department of Radiation Oncology,Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First Medical Universityand Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, China
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Inflammation markers play an important role in tumor proliferation, invasion and metastasis. Oligo-metastases, a state intermediate between widespread metastases and locally confined disease, where curative strategies may be effective for some patients. However, the prognostic value of inflammatory markers and corresponding nomogram in patients with colorectal oligo-metastases has not been adequately documented.We retrospectively collected 209 patients with colorectal oligo-metastases. Overall survival (OS), and progression-free survival (PFS) were estimated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression analysis. The multivariate Cox analysis model was used to build the nomogram, and the calibration curve, concordance index (C-index) and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were used to evaluate the accuracy of the nomogram.The multivariate analysis showed that platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) was independently related with OS (HR = 2.396, 95% CI: 1.391-4.126, P = 0.002). Lymph nodes metastases predicted poor OS (HR = 2.472, 95% CI: 1.247-4.903, P = 0.010). While the early N stage had significant survival benefit for OS (HR = 4.602,95% CI: 2.055-10.305, P = 0.001) and PFS (HR = 2.100, 95% CI: 1.364-3.231, P = 0.007). Primary resection (HR = 0.367, 95% CI: 0.148-0.908, P = 0.030) and lower fibrinogen (HR = 2.254, 95% CI: 1.246-4.078, P = 0.007) were independently related with better OS. The Nomograms consisted of above significant risk factors, with C-index of 0.721 and AUC of 0.772 for OS. The calibration and ROC curves showed non-significant deviations between predicted and actual probability of OS.Pretreatment PLR was independently related with OS in colorectal patients with oligo-metastases. And we built a nomogram including PLR, Lymph nodes metastases, Clinical N stage, Fibrinogen, and Primary resection to predict survivals in colorectal patients with oligo-metastases with a high validity and accuracy.Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Inc.

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Graduate,Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan, China, Luzhou, China, [2]Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, Shandong, China, Jinan, China,
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