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Nomogram to predict postoperative infectious complications after surgery for colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study in China

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机构: [1]Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Chengdu Second People’s Hospital,No .10 Qinyun Nan Street, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan Province, China [2]Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Sichuan Cancer Hospital & ResearchInstitute, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science andTechnology of China (UESTC), Chengdu, China [3]College of Basic Medicine,Chongqing Three Gorges Medical College, Chongqing, China
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关键词: Colorectal cancer Infectious complications Risk mode

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Background Postoperative infectious complications (ICs) after surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC) increase in-hospital deaths and decrease long-term survival. However, the methodology for IC preoperative and intraoperative risk assessment has not yet been established. We aimed to construct a risk model for IC after surgery for CRC. Methods Between January 2016 and June 2020, a total of 593 patients who underwent curative surgery for CRC in Chengdu Second People's Hospital were enrolled. Preoperative and intraoperative factors were obtained retrospectively. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was used to screen out risk factors for IC. Then, based on the results of LASSO regression analysis, multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to establish the prediction model. Bootstraps with 300 resamples were performed for internal validation. The performance of the model was evaluated with its calibration and discrimination. The clinical usefulness was assessed by decision curve analysis (DCA). Results A total of 95 (16.0%) patients developed ICs after surgery for CRC. Chronic pulmonary diseases, diabetes mellitus, preoperative and/or intraoperative blood transfusion, and longer operation time were independent risk factors for IC. A prediction model was constructed based on these factors. The concordance index (C-index) of the model was 0.761. The calibration curve of the model suggested great agreement. DCA showed that the model was clinically useful. Conclusion Several risk factors for IC after surgery for CRC were identified. A prediction model generated by these risk factors may help in identifying patients who may benefit from perioperative optimization.

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出版当年[2021]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 外科 4 区 肿瘤学
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 肿瘤学 3 区 外科
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出版当年[2021]版:
Q2 SURGERY Q3 ONCOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q1 SURGERY Q3 ONCOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2021版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2020版] 出版后一年[2022版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Chengdu Second People’s Hospital,No .10 Qinyun Nan Street, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan Province, China
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