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Development and external validation of a novel nomogram for screening Chinese Lynch syndrome: based on a multicenter, population study.

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机构: [1]Department of Medical Oncology, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Intervention, Ministry of Education, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China [2]Cancer Institute, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Intervention, Ministry of Education, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China [3]State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou, China [4]Department of Colorectal Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China [5]Department of Colorectal Surgery, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou, China [6]Department of Pathology, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy, Tianjin, China [7]Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hangzhou First People’s Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China Chunkang Yang [8]Department of Gastrointestinal Surgical Oncology, Fujian Cancer Hospital and Fujian Medical University Cancer Hospital, Fuzhou, China [9]Department of Colorectal Surgery, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Yunnan Cancer Hospital, Kunming, China [10]Department of Medical Oncology, 81st Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, China [11]Department of Gastroenterology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China [12]Department of Medical Oncology, Cancer Center, West China Hospital, West China Medical School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China [13]Department of Gastroenterology and Urology, Hunan Cancer Hospital, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South University, Changsha, China [14]Department of Gastrointestinal Oncology, Key laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Peking University Cancer Hospital and Institute, Beijing, China Bin Xiong [15]Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China [16]Department of Pathology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Medical University, Xian, China [17]Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China [18]Department of Bioinformatics, Burning Rock Biotech, Guangzhou, China [19]Medical Department, Burning Rock Biotech, Guangzhou, China [20]Cancer Institute, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Intervention, Ministry of Education, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China [21]Department of Colorectal Surgery and Oncology, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Intervention, Ministry of Education, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
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This multicenter study aimed to reveal the genetic spectrum of colorectal cancer (CRC) with deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) and build a screening model for Lynch syndrome (LS).Through the immunohistochemical (IHC) screening of mismatch repair protein results in postoperative CRC patients, 311 dMMR cases, whose germline and somatic variants were detected using the ColonCore panel, were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed on the clinical characteristics of these dMMR individuals, and a clinical nomogram, incorporating statistically significant factors identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis, was constructed to predict the probability of LS. The model was validated externally by an independent cohort.In total, 311 CRC patients with IHC dMMR included 95 identified MMR germline variant (LS) cases and 216 cases without pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in MMR genes (non-Lynch-associated dMMR). Of the 95 individuals, approximately 51.6%, 28.4%, 14.7%, and 5.3% cases carried germline MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2 pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants, respectively. A novel nomogram was then built to predict the probability of LS for CRC patients with dMMR intuitively. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve informed that this nomogram-based screening model could identify LS with a higher specificity and sensitivity with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.87 than current screening criteria based on family history. In the external validation cohort, the AUC of the ROC curve reached 0.804, inferring the screening model's universal applicability. We recommend that dMMR-CRC patients with a probability of LS greater than 0.435 should receive a further germline sequencing.This novel screening model based on the clinical characteristic differences between LS and non-Lynch-associated dMMR may assist clinicians to preliminarily screen LS and refer susceptible patients to experienced specialists.© The Author(s), 2021.

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出版当年[2021]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 肿瘤学
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 肿瘤学
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Q2 ONCOLOGY
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Q2 ONCOLOGY

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Medical Oncology, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Intervention, Ministry of Education, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China [2]Cancer Institute, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Intervention, Ministry of Education, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
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通讯机构: [*1]Department of Medical Oncology, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Intervention, Ministry of Education, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 88 Jiefang Road, Hangzhou 310009, China [*2]Cancer Institute, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Intervention, Ministry of Education, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China [*3]Department of Colorectal Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China [*4]State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou, China [*5]Department of Colorectal Surgery and Oncology, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Intervention, Ministry of Education, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 88 Jiefang Road, Hangzhou 310009, China [*6]Cancer Institute, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Intervention, Ministry of Education, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
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