Background: The aim of this study was to build nomograms to predict local recurrence (LR) and regional recurrence (RR) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) underwent intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). Patients and Methods: A total of 1811 patients with non-metastatic NPC treated with IMRT (with or without chemotherapy) between October 2009 and February 2012 at our center were involved for building the nomograms. Nomograms for LR-free rate and RR-free rate at 3- and 5year were generated as visualizations of Cox proportional hazards regression models, and validated using bootstrap resampling, estimating discrimination and calibration. Results: With a median follow up of 49.50 months, the 3- and 5-year LR-free rate were 95.43% and 94.30% respectively; the 3- and 5-year RR-free rate were 95.94% and 95.41% respectively. The final predictive model for LR included age, the neutrophil/leukocyte ratio (NWR), pathological type, primary gross tumor volume, maxillary sinus invasion, ethmoidal sinus invasion and lacerated foramen invasion; the model for RR involved NWR, plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA copy number, cervical lymph node volume and N category. The models showed fairly good discriminatory ability with concordance indices (c-indices) of 0.76 and 0.74 for predicting LR and RR, respectively, as well as good calibration. The proposed stratification of risk groups based on the nomograms allowed significant distinction between Kaplan-Meier curves for LR and RR. Conclusions: The proposed nomograms resulted in more-accurate prognostic prediction for LR and RR with a high concordance, hence to inform patients with high risk of recurrence on more aggressive therapy. The prognostic nomograms could better stratify patients into different risk groups.
基金:
Health & Medical Collaborative Innovation Project of Guangzhou City, China [201400000001]; National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Period [2014BAI09B10]; National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China [81402532, 81372409]; Science and Technology Project of Guangzhou City, China [132000507]
语种:
外文
被引次数:
WOS:
中科院(CAS)分区:
出版当年[2017]版:
大类|3 区医学
小类|3 区肿瘤学
最新[2023]版:
大类|3 区医学
小类|4 区肿瘤学
第一作者:
第一作者机构:[1]Sun Yat Sen Univ, Canc Ctr, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Canc Med, State Key Lab Oncol Southern China,Dept Radiat On, Guangzhou 510060, Guangdong, Peoples R China;
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Sun Yat Sen Univ, Canc Ctr, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Canc Med, State Key Lab Oncol Southern China,Dept Radiat On, Guangzhou 510060, Guangdong, Peoples R China;[3]Sun Yat Sen Univ, Canc Ctr, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Canc Med, Dept Radiat Oncol,State Key Lab Oncol South China, 651 Dongfeng Rd East, Guangzhou 510060, Guangdong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Chen Fo-ping,Lin Li,Qi Zhen-yu,et al.Pretreatment Nomograms for Local and Regional Recurrence after Radical Radiation Therapy for Primary Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma[J].JOURNAL OF CANCER.2017,8(13):2595-2603.doi:10.7150/jca.20255.
APA:
Chen, Fo-ping,Lin, Li,Qi, Zhen-yu,Zhou, Guan-qun,Guo, Rui...&Sun, Ying.(2017).Pretreatment Nomograms for Local and Regional Recurrence after Radical Radiation Therapy for Primary Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.JOURNAL OF CANCER,8,(13)
MLA:
Chen, Fo-ping,et al."Pretreatment Nomograms for Local and Regional Recurrence after Radical Radiation Therapy for Primary Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma".JOURNAL OF CANCER 8..13(2017):2595-2603