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Nomogram individually predicts the overall survival of patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms

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机构: [1]Department of Gastric Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [2]State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [3]Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [4]Department of General Surgery, Guangdong General Hospital, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [5]Guangdong Academy of Medical Science, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [6]Department of Biliopancreatic Surgery, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [7]Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Malignant Tumor Epigenetics and Gene Regulation, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [8]Department of Gastroenterology, First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [9]Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [10]Department of Gastroenterology, Nanfang Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [11]Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Gastroenterology, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [12]Department of Pathology, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [13]Department of Colorectal Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [14]Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China
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关键词: nomogram gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms predict overall survival

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Background: The current study aimed to establish a novel nomogram to predict the overall survival of individual Chinese patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (GEP-NENs). Furthermore, this study sought to externally validate this nomogram using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Methods: The records of 1183 patients with GEP-NENs treated at five high-capacity institutions in China between 2005 and 2015 were retrospectively analysed. In addition, 10 236 GEP-NEN cases from the SEER database were included as an external validation set. Results: A multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards (PHs) regression was performed, and a nomogram was constructed. Discrimination, calibration, and external validation were performed using the SEER data set. The multivariate Cox model indicated that age, tumour size, differentiation, lymph node metastases, and distant metastases were independent covariates associated with survival. With respect to the training set, the nomogram exhibited better discrimination power than TNM classification (Harrell's concordance index (C-index): 0.837 vs 0.784, P = 0.006). Discrimination was also excellent and superior to that of TNM classification for the SEER-based validation set (C-index: 0.808 vs 0.717, P<0.001). The calibrated nomogram predicted a survival rate that closely corresponded to the actual survival rate. Conclusions: We developed a nomogram that predicted the 3-and 5-year overall survival rates of patients with GEP-NENs. Validation revealed excellent discrimination and calibration for this nomogram, suggesting that it exhibits satisfactory clinical utility that might improve individualised predictions of survival risks and lead to the creation of additional clinical therapies.

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出版当年[2017]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 肿瘤学
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 肿瘤学
第一作者:
第一作者机构: [1]Department of Gastric Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [2]State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [3]Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China
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通讯机构: [1]Department of Gastric Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [2]State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [3]Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China [8]Department of Gastroenterology, First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China
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