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Development and validation of a post-radiotherapy prediction model for bowel dysfunction after rectal cancer resection

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机构: [1]Department of General Surgery, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China [2]Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, Biomedical Innovation Center, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China [3]Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, China [4]Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), Beijing, China [5]Department of General Surgery, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China [6]National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing, China [7]Department of Radiology, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China [8]Department of Radiology, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, China
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The benefit of radiotherapy for rectal cancer is largely based on a balance between decrease in local recurrence and increase in bowel dysfunction. Predicting postoperative disability is helpful for recovery plans and early intervention. We aimed to develop and validate a risk model to improve the prediction of major bowel dysfunction after restorative rectal cancer resection with neoadjuvant radiotherapy using perioperative features.Eligible patients more than one year after restorative resection following radiotherapy were invited to complete the low anterior resection syndrome (LARS) score in three national hospitals of China. Clinical characteristics and imaging parameters were assessed with machine learning algorithms. The post-radiotherapy LARS prediction model (PORTLARS) was constructed by logistic regression on the basis of key factors with proportional weighs. The accuracy of model for major LARS prediction was internally and externally validated.A total of 868 patients reported mean LARS score of 28.4 after average time of 4.7 years since surgery. Key predictors for major LARS included the length of distal rectum, anastomotic leakage, proximal colon of neorectum, and pathological nodal-stage. PORTLARS had a favorable area under the curve for predicting major LARS in the internal dataset (0.835, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.800-0.870, n=521) and external dataset (0.884, 95% CI 0.848-0.921, n=347). The model achieved both sensitivity and specificity over 0.83 in the external validation. Additionally, PORTLARS outperformed the pre-operative LARS score for prediction of major events.PORTLARS could predict major bowel dysfunction after rectal cancer resection following radiotherapy with high accuracy and robustness. It may serve as a useful tool to highlight patients who need additional support for long-term dysfunction in the early stage.Copyright © 2023 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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出版当年[2023]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 胃肠肝病学
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 胃肠肝病学
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出版当年[2023]版:
Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2023版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2022版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of General Surgery, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China [2]Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, Biomedical Innovation Center, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
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通讯机构: [1]Department of General Surgery, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China [2]Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, Biomedical Innovation Center, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China [4]Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), Beijing, China [5]Department of General Surgery, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China [6]National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing, China [8]Department of Radiology, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, China [*1]Department of General Surgery, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, Biomedical Innovation Center, Sun Yatsen University, No. 26 Yuancun Er Heng Road, Tianhe District, Guangzhou, 510655, China [*2]Department of Radiology, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), No. 52 Fucheng Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100142, China [*3]Department of General Surgery, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University,National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, No. 95 Yongan Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, China.
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