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Developing and validating a mortality prediction model for ICH in ITP: a nationwide representative multicenter study.

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机构： [1]Peking University People's Hospital, Peking University Institute of Hematology, Beijing, China [2]National Clinical Research Center for Hematologic Disease, Beijing, China [3]Beijing Key Laboratory of Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation, Beijing, China [4]Collaborative Innovation Center of Hematology, Peking University, Beijing, China [5]Department of Hematology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang,China [6]Department of Hematology, Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou,China [7]Peking University Cancer Hospital and Institute, Beijing, China [8]Department of Hematology, Qilu Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, China [9]Department of Geriatric Hematology, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China [10]Department of Hematology, Hainan General Hospital, Haikou, China [11]Department of Hemotology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China [12]Department of Hematology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi, China [13]Department of Hematology, The Affiliated Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical University,Hohhot, China [14]Fujian Institute of Hematology, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, China [15]Department of Hematology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University,Kunming, China [16]Department of Hematology, The First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China [17]Department of Hematology, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, China [18]Department of Hematology, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University,Jinan, China [19]Department of Hematology, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China [20]Department of Hematology, Beijing Hospital, Ministry of Health, Beijing, China [21]Department of Hematology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan,China [22]Department of Hematology, Affiliated Shanxi Big Hospital of Shanxi Medical University,Taiyuan, China [23]Department of Hematology, Guangzhou First People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China [24]Xinqiao Hospital, The Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China [25]Department of Hematology, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China [26]Rui Jin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China [27]Nanfang Hospital, Nanfang Medical University, Guangzhou, China [28]Beijing Luhe Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China [29]Department of Hematology, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy ofMedical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China [30]Fuxing Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China [31]Department of Hematology, Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang,China [32]Key Laboratory of Genomic and Precision Medicine, Collaborative Innovation Center ofGenetics and Development, Beijing Institute of Genomics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,China

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Intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) is a rare and life-threatening hemorrhagic event in patients with immune thrombocytopenia (ITP). However, its mortality and related risk factors remain unclear. Herein, we conducted a nation-wide multicenter real-world study of ICH in adult ITP patients. According to data from 27 centers in China during 2005-2020, the mortality rate from ICH was 33.80% in ITP adults (48/142). We identified risk factors by logistic univariate and multivariate logistic regression for 30-day mortality in a training cohort of 107 patients as follows: intraparenchymal hemorrhage (IPH), platelet count ≤10×109/L at ICH, a combination of serious infections, grade of preceding bleeding events and Glasgow coma scale (GCS) level on admission. Accordingly, a prognostic model of 30-day mortality was developed based on the regression equation. Then, we evaluated the performance of the prognostic model through a bootstrap procedure for internal validation. Furthermore, an external validation with data from a test cohort with 35 patients from 11 other centers was conducted. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the internal and external validation were 0.954 (95% CI: 0.910~0.998) and 0.942 (95% CI: 0.871~1.014), respectively. Both calibration plots illustrated a high degree of consistency in the estimated and observed risk. In addition, the decision curve analysis showed a considerable net benefit for patients. Thus, an application (47.94.162.105:8080/ich/) was established for users to predict 30-day mortality when ICH occurred in adult patients with ITP.Copyright © 2022 American Society of Hematology.

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大类 | 1 区

医学

小类 | 2 区血液学

最新[2023]版：

大类 | 1 区

医学

小类 | 2 区血液学

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出版当年[2022]版：

Q1 HEMATOLOGY

最新[2023]版：

Q1 HEMATOLOGY

影响因子： 7.4 最新[2023版] 7.2 最新五年平均 7.6 出版当年[2022版] 7.1 出版当年五年平均 7.642 出版前一年[2021版] 7.4 出版后一年[2023版]

第一作者：

第一作者机构： [1]Peking University People's Hospital, Peking University Institute of Hematology, Beijing, China [2]National Clinical Research Center for Hematologic Disease, Beijing, China [3]Beijing Key Laboratory of Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation, Beijing, China [4]Collaborative Innovation Center of Hematology, Peking University, Beijing, China

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通讯作者：

通讯机构： [1]Peking University People's Hospital, Peking University Institute of Hematology, Beijing, China [2]National Clinical Research Center for Hematologic Disease, Beijing, China [3]Beijing Key Laboratory of Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation, Beijing, China [4]Collaborative Innovation Center of Hematology, Peking University, Beijing, China [*1]No. 11 Xizhimen South Street, Xicheng District, Beijing, China

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