机构：[1]Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Provincial Orthopedics Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, China[2]Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, China四川省人民医院[3]Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute,Chengdu, Sichuan, China四川省肿瘤医院[4]School of Management,Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Chengdu, Sichuan, China
Hepatitis B virus infection is a major global public health concern. This study explored the epidemic characteristics and tendency of hepatitis B in 31 provinces of mainland China, constructed a SARIMA model for prediction, and provided corresponding preventive measures. Monthly hepatitis B case data from mainland China from 2013 to 2020 were obtained from the website of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. Monthly data from 2013 to 2020 were used to build the SARIMA model and data from 2021 were used to test the model. Between 2013 and 2020, 9,177,313 hepatitis B cases were reported in mainland China. SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 was the optimal model and its residual was white noise. It was used to predict the number of hepatitis B cases from January to December 2021, and the predicted values for 2021 were within the 95% confidence interval. This study suggests that the SARIMA model simulated well based on epidemiological trends of hepatitis B in mainland China. The SARIMA model is a feasible tool for monitoring hepatitis B virus infections in mainland China.
基金：
National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China [YLZLXZ-2021-004]
第一作者机构：[1]Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Provincial Orthopedics Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
通讯作者：
通讯机构：[1]Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Provincial Orthopedics Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, China[*1]Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Provincial Orthopedics Hospital, No. 132, West Section, First Ring Road, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China.
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Zhao Daren,Zhang Huiwu,Cao Qing,et al.The research of SARIMA model for prediction of hepatitis B in mainland China[J].MEDICINE.2022,101(23):doi:10.1097/MD.0000000000029317.
APA：
Zhao, Daren,Zhang, Huiwu,Cao, Qing,Wang, Zhiyi&Zhang, Ruihua.(2022).The research of SARIMA model for prediction of hepatitis B in mainland China.MEDICINE,101,(23)
MLA：
Zhao, Daren,et al."The research of SARIMA model for prediction of hepatitis B in mainland China".MEDICINE 101..23(2022)
